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When there is blood in the water, it is only natural that dorsal fins swirl around excitedly. Now that America's housing market is ailing, predators have their sights on the country's credit-card market. Analysts at Goldman Sachs reckon that credit-card losses could reach $99 billion if contagion spreads from subprime mortgages to other forms of consumer credit. Signs of strain are clearly visible. There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively. HSBC announced last month that it had taken a $1.4 billion charge in its American consumer-finance business, partly because of weakness among card borrowers.

It is too early to panic, though. Charge-offs and delinquencies are still low. According to Moody's, a rating agency, the third-quarter delinquency rate of 3.89% was almost a full percentage point below the historical average. The deterioration in rates can be partly explained by technical factors. A change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.

The industry also reports solid payment rates, which show how much of their debt consumers pay off each month. And confidence in credit-card asset-backed securities is pretty firm despite paralysis in other corners of structured finance. Dennis Moroney of TowerGroup, a research firm, predicts that issuance volumes for 2007 will end up being 25% higher than last year.

Direct channels of infection between the subprime-mortgage crisis and the credit-card market certainly exist: consumers are likelier to load up on credit-card debt now that home-equity loans are drying up. But card issuers look at cash flow rather than asset values, so falling house prices do not necessarily trigger a change in borrowers' creditworthiness. They may even work to issuers' advantage. The incentives for consumers to keep paying the mortgage decrease if properties are worth less than the value of the loan; card debt rises higher up the list of repayment priorities as a result.     

Card issuers are also able to respond much more swiftly and flexibly to stormier conditions than mortgage lenders are, by changing interest rates or altering credit limits. That should in theory reduce the risk of a rapid repricing of assets. “We are not going to wake up one day and totally revalue the loans,” says Gary Perlin, Capital One's chief financial officer.

If a sudden subprime-style meltdown in the credit-card market is improbable, the risks of a sustained downturn are much more real. If lower house prices and a contraction in credit push America into recession, the industry will undoubtedly face a grimmer future. Keep watching for those dorsal fins.

1. The author makes mention of dorsal fins which are irrelevant to the topic in order to _____.

[A] make people alert to the potential danger

[B] attract the readers’ attention by presenting an interesting phenomenon

[C] make people realize the graveness of the issue by showing a similar case

[D] make the passage more vivid by imparting new knowledge to readers

2. Rises in the charge-off and delinquency rate indicate _____.

[A] the deterioration of the subprime mortgage

[B] the inadequate ability of card borrowers

[C] the influence of the technical factors

[D] the change in relevant laws

3. According to the third paragraph, the number of bankruptcy fillings would be rising again because_____.

[A] there is a change in America’s personal-bankruptcy laws

[B] the charge-offs and delinquencies are still low

[C] the influence of the personal-bankruptcy laws has been digested

[D] the overall conditions for borrowers are getting worse

4. The subprime-mortgage crisis influnces the credit-card market in that_____.

[A] the fall of asset values affects the card borrowers’ creditworthiness

[B] the decrease in the mortgage payment leads to the rises of the card debt

[C] the drying up of the home-equity loans spur consumers’ incectives to repay the card debt

[D] the falling house prices makes the card debt rising higher

5. According to the author, the credit-card market will more likely be threatened by_____.

[A] a gradual downward tendency

[B] a rapid collapse

[C] a sustained trend of lowering price

[D] the accumulation of economic recession

文章剖析：

这篇文章分析了美国次级抵押贷款危机可能影响到的信用卡市场。第一段指出信用卡市场已经出现疲软迹象；第二段、第三段通过分析表示信用卡市场危机并未确定，不需要过于恐慌；第四段指出次级抵押危机与信用卡市场之间的传染渠道；第五段指出信用卡规避风险的优势；第六段指出信用卡市场更趋于经历持续低迷的情况。

词汇注释：

dorsal fin n.[动物]背鳍                                       ailing adj. 景况不佳的，生病的

contagion n.传染, 传染病, 蔓延                         charge-off n. 损耗 

delinquency n. 逾期债款

难句突破：

(1)   There are rises in both the charge-off and delinquency rates, which measure the share of balances that are uncollectable or more than 30 days late respectively.

[主体句式] There are rises in…

[结构分析] 这是一个简单句，which 引导的非限定性定语从句是修饰前面的the charge-off and delinquency rates；在该定语从句中还有定语从句修饰the share of balances，在该定语从句中，前半个句子对应修饰the charge-off rates，后半个句子是个省略句，对应修饰the delinquency rates.

[句子译文] 损耗率和逾期债款率都上升了，这两个数据分别代表收不回来的收支差额的份额和晚了30天的份额。

(2) A change in America's personal-bankruptcy laws in 2005 led to an abrupt fall in bankruptcy filings, which in turn account for a big chunk of credit-card losses; the number of filings (and thus charge-off rates) would be rising again, whether or not overall conditions for borrowers were getting worse.

[主体句式] A change led to an abrupt fall; the number would be rising.

[结构分析]这是一个复杂句，分号将前后两个句子隔开。前面句子中，宾语带有which引导的非限定性定语从句；后面句子是带有方式状语从句的复杂句。

[句子译文]2005年美国个人破产法的一个改动使得破产登记急速下降，而后引起了信用卡大规模的亏损。破产登记数量（随之的charge-off率）可以重新上升，不管贷款人的整体状况是否变得更糟糕了。

题目分析：

[答案]A

[难度系数] ☆☆☆

[分析]推理题。文章在首尾都提到了背鳍。开头提到一旦水中有血，背鳍就会变得兴奋起来，接着就提到美国房地产衰退后，捕食者将目光转移到信用卡市场。末尾提到要留心背鳍。可以看出，作者提到背鳍是一种隐喻，意味着危险，因此选项A 比较符合题意。

[答案]B

[难度系数] ☆☆

[分析] 推理题。文章在第一段提到，信用卡市场的疲软迹象已经出现，接着就提到这两个数字，损耗率和逾期债款率分别代表无法收回来的收支差额的份额和晚付了30天的份额，接着还举例说香港汇丰银行的14亿美元费用就是部分因为信用卡借款人偿还能力较弱。因此，这两项升高表明信用卡市场出现问题。A不符合；B，是信用卡市场问题；CD在第二段提到，是引起这两项升高的部分原因所在。因此，答案为B。

[答案]C

[难度系数] ☆☆☆

[分析] 推理题。文章第三段最后提到不管贷款人整体的情况是否变坏，破产申请数量都会再次增多。前面又提到是因为2005年美国个人破产法有一定变化，破产申请才急剧降低，而后引发了信用卡市场的一些问题。因此，这项法律实行一段时间后，大家已经消化了这个变化，趋势又会恢复正常。答案C最为贴切。

[答案]C

[难度系数] ☆☆☆

[分析] 细节题。文章第四段提到次级抵押贷款危机和信用卡市场之间有直接感染的通道，因为家庭资产贷款衰竭，借款人就更愿意把信用卡的贷款偿还清；而且因为房屋的价格比贷款还低，大家就不愿意还房屋抵押贷款，因此信用卡贷款偿还在偿还方面位居前列。选项中C符合这种推理，为正确答案。

[答案]A

[难度系数] ☆☆☆

[分析] 细节题。文章最后一段指出，次级抵押贷款式的突然垮台可能不会出现在信用卡市场，更容易出现的是一种持续不断的低迷。因此，信用卡市场更可能受到这种缓慢的低迷趋势的影响。答案A最为符合题意。

参考译文：

如果水中有血的话，那么自然地背鳍就会兴奋地游来游去。现在美国的房产市场景况不佳，掠夺者就把目光转向了这个国家的信用卡体系。GoldmanSachs的分析师们认为如果这种趋势从次级抵押扩散到消费者信用的其他形式的话，那么信用卡损失可能要达到990亿美元。目前这种趋紧的迹象已经显现。损耗率和逾期债款率都上升了，这两个数据分别代表收不回来的收支差额的份额和晚了30天的份额。汇丰银行上个月宣布在美国消费者金融行业的抵押款为14亿美元，部分原因就在于信用卡贷款人的弱势。

但现在恐慌还为时尚早。Chargeoffs和逾期债款率还不是很高。据一家评估机构Moody's估算，第三季度3.89%的逾期债款率比历史平均值还低整整一个百分点。比率变差部分是由于技术原因。2005年美国个人破产法的一个改动使得破产登记急速下降，而后引起了信用卡大规模的亏损。破产登记数量（随之的chargeoff率）可以重新上升，不管贷款人的整体状况是否变得更糟糕了。

该行业还报告了真正的支付率，就是表示有多少贷款消费者每个月还清贷款了。尽管在其他结构性金融部分出现了瘫痪，但是对信用卡负债支持的有价证券信心还是坚定的。一家研究机构TowerGroup的工作人员Dennis Moroney 预计2007年发行数量最后将比去年高出25%。

次级抵押危机和信用卡市场之间存在直接的传染通道，既然家庭资产贷款就衰竭了，消费者更倾向于将信用卡的贷款贷满。但是信用卡发行人看到的是现金流动而不是资产价值，因此房产价格的下降并不一定会带来贷款人信用度的改变，甚至会有利于发行人。如果消费者的财产还没有贷款的金额高，那么消费者一直支付抵押贷款的动机就会削弱，最后信用卡贷款就会成为偿还款项的最首位。

信用卡发行人也可以在遇到更为严峻的情况时，通过改变利率或信用额度，比房屋抵押借款人作出反应更快、更灵活些。这在理论上可以降低资产快速重新定价的风险。“我们不希望有天一睁开眼就得全部重新估算贷款，”Capital One的首席金融官员Gary Perlin这样说。

如果在信用卡市场中那种次级抵押式的突如其来的彻底崩溃是不可能的话，那么持续低迷的风险是更为真实的。如果房产低价格和信贷紧缩将美国引致衰退，那么该行业将会面临更惨淡的未来。时刻留心那些背鳍吧。